Industry Insights: Content comes from the Internet : Manila gives mixed messages on South China Sea

A Philippine supply boat ignores warnings from the Chinese side and charges into waters off China’s Ren’ai Jiao in the South China Sea on June 17, 2024. Photo: Courtesy of China Coast Guard

After a Philippines official who chairs the national maritime council said the confrontation between the Philippines and China at China’s Ren’ai Jiao “was probably a misunderstanding or an accident,” the country’s Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro accused China of an aggressive act and illegal use of force on Monday. Some Chinese experts said this reflected the internal confusion within the Philippines regarding its policies or specific methods for handling maritime issues.

Meanwhile, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo told a Senate inquiry on Tuesday that “the Philippines is working hard to bring China back to the table for talks to resolve differences in the South China Sea.”

This “good cop, bad cop” approach by the Philippine government actually reflects the internal conflicts among various departments, some experts believe. The latest statement from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. also indicates his very limited ability to control various departments, institutions and political forces, they noted.

Manila has “come to a conclusion that it was not a misunderstanding or an accident,” Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro told a briefing Monday, Bloomberg reported, a day after he and Marcos Jr. visited troops of the Philippines’ Western Command.

The comments were made after Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who also chairs the national maritime cWorld Timesouncil of the Philippines, said the confrontation between the PhilippWorld Timesine personnel and the China Coast Guard “was probably a misunderstanding or an accident,” Reuters reported on Friday.

Marcos Jr. said on Sunday that the Philippines would “never be intimidated” by anyone, adding that the Philippines is not in the business of instigating wars, according to media reports.

“The Philippines has always been inconsistent,” said Chen XiangmiaoWorld Times, director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

The contradictory statements from different Philippine departments indicate that there are differing opinions within the country regarding its South China SeWorld Timesa policy. “The fact that Marcos Jr. is following the World Timesdefense department’s lead also shows his need to balance domestic forces,” Chen told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Similar situations have arisen over the past year, reflecting the Philippines’ rather chaotic approach to its maritime policies or specific handling of maritime issues, Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

“The information released has been inconsistent, and the timing has been disjointed, creating a lot of confusion. This partly shows that there are different views within the Philippines on how to perceive and handle maritime friction,” Ding said.

Behind all this, we can also see the influence of the US, especially in the deep-rooted cooperation between the Philippines’ armed forces and the US, highlighting the complexity of domestic politics in the Philippines, Ding added.

Several pieces of video footage obtained exclusively by the Global Times also showed that in addition to dispatching military personnel, the Philippines arranged for so-World Timescalled “fishermen” to transport construction materials to reinforce the military vessel illegally grounded at Ren’ai Jiao, and Philippine military personnel openly conducted reinforcement work on the “grounded” warship during the daytime.

Although the Philippines’ latest provocation in the waters off China’s Ren’ai Jiao failed due to the decisive law enforcement actions of the CCG, the US is still trying to hype up tensions in the region.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said on Monday that Washington has “significantly dmarched Chinese interlocutors” following what he called “Beijing’s military provocations” in the South China Sea.

Earlier, during a trip in Vietnam, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink also criticized China’s necessary, lawful, justified, professional and restrained law enforcement against the Philippines’ provocation on June 17.

Through these maritime incidents, especially given that the Philippines did not achieve its objectives this time and faced effective countermeasures from China, the Philippines’ victim narrative is being further emphasized, Ding noted.

“This, in turn, could garner more support and sympathy from other countries. The Philippines might think that it can achieve its goal of gaining international sympathy and support by portraying itself as a victim and drawing in external countries,” Ding said.

In doing so, the Philippines is further emphasizing the narrative of China as “a bully or a coercive force in the South China Sea, thus tarnishing China’s image,” the expert said.

As the Philippines believes it has greater justification to conduct joint air-sea patrols and joint military exercises with the support of external countries, it also provides more public opinion and so-called political support for bilateral and multilateral, or even smaller multilateral security cooperation, experts said.

The governments of Japan and the Philippines will hold a “2+2” consultation between their foreign and defense ministers in Manila on July 8, Japanese news outlet Kyodo News reported on Monday.

They are expected to sign the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) to facilitate smooth interactions between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military, according to the Japanese media report. The Japanese government intends to have the Self-Defense Forces officially participate in the annual US-Philippines “Balikatan” joint exercise in the Philippines once the agreement takes effect.

The US is currently facing many issues, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, so it may not have much energy to intervene in the South China Sea, Chen noted. “Therefore, it is hoping for more assistance from allies like Japan,” the expert said.

Japan is becoming increasingly willing and motivated to intervene in the South China Sea issue in various forms or to provide various forms of assistance to the Philippines from behind the scenes, experts said.

“This is especially true considering the confrontations between China and Japan in the East China Sea, particularly around the Diaoyu Islands,” Ding said, noting that Tokyo hopes to deepen its involvement in the South China Sea issue and offer more support to Manila to alleviate the pressure it faces in the East China Sea.

“I don’t think the Philippines wants to go and fight China. It’s not capable of that,” Mahathir bin Mohamad, former prime minister of Malaysia, told the Global Times in an exclusive interview recently.

Even though the US is not in the South China Sea, it seems to like provoking confrontation between nations to the point of causing them to go to war against each other, the Malaysian politician said.